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Aluminum prices hit multi-year highs as risk of supply disruptions in Russia increases

Feb 24, 2022
On February 22, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price hit a multi-year high.The move comes after Russia ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, sparking fears of war and sanctions that could affect Russian exports. LME three-month aluminium rose $23.50, or 0.72%, to $3,303 a tonne at 17:00 on February 22, London time, after hitting $3,380 a tonne earlier, down slightly from $3,380.15 in 2008 record high.


aluminium profile


Russia's aluminum production accounts for about 6% of the world's, rusal was sanctioned in 2018, and aluminium prices rose 35% in a few days.Aluminium prices are up around 17% so far this year after rising 42% in 2021.ING analyst Wenyu Yao said,even with Russian exports unaffected, aluminium remains in short supply. "They were seeing very strong fundamentals before the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalated," she said.

Germany suspended the certification of a new Russian gas pipeline and Britain imposed sanctions on Russian banks. The West has responded to Russia's recognition of the two breakaway regions of Ukraine and a speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting more belligerent targets.

Western countries are unlikely to impose sanctions on Rusal, analysts said, as high aluminum prices hurt manufacturing. The shortage has caused aluminium inventories in LME warehouses to fall to 835,125 tonnes from nearly 2 million tonnes in March last year. Premiums for spot aluminium over the three-month contract are close to highs not seen since 2018, and premiums for physical duty-paid in Europe and the US have risen to record highs.
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